Twenty-five years ago, the European Union reacted with outrage at the prospect of a far-right politician, Jörg Haider, entering Austria’s government, turning the country into a virtual pariah.
This time? Crickets.
With Herbert Kickl, a right-wing hard-liner who advocates “remigration” for second- and third-generation immigrants, poised to become Austria’s next chancellor, the reaction from EU leaders so far has been to grin, bear it — and hope that Kickl won’t prove as disruptive around the EU leaders’ table as his prior positions suggest he might be.
Gone are the days when EU leaders, confident in the need to uphold the bloc’s centrist values against extreme positions, sanctioned Austria in the year 2000, or opened Article 7 proceedings against Poland in 2017, deploying Europe’s “nuclear” legal weapon against a member country accused of flouting its rules.
Now, the toughest protest that Kickl might face if he wins the chancellorship and joins leaders at an upcoming gathering in Brussels is some awkward body language and an unsmiling reception.
“Will they smile when they are photographed with him? Probably not. But that [degree of protest] will be the extent of it,” said the EU diplomat, who like others in this piece was granted anonymity to talk about matters they cannot discuss publicly.
The likely acceptance of the far-right Freedom Party into the fold — coalition talks between Kickl and the center-right Austrian People’s Party are ongoing in Vienna — marks the demise of Europe’s famed cordon sanitaire, the firewall that has kept right-wing populists out of power for decades across the continent.
On Monday, Austria’s interim chancellor, Alexander Schallenberg, made a last-minute trip to Brussels to reassure partners about Austria’s future, telling Brussels Playbook: “Austria is and will remain a reliable, constructive and strong partner in the European Union and around the world.”
Despite concerns about the direction of Austrian policy under Kickl, two EU diplomats who were granted anonymity to speculate about diplomatic consequences said it was unlikely that leaders would lodge any sort of formal protest against Austria if he becomes chancellor.
That’s in line with their attitude toward Hungary, which faced no protest beyond not being able to host a defense gathering, despite Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s having flown to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the start of Budapest’s rotating presidency of the Council of the EU last year.
One EU diplomat said the EU should consider starting Article 7 proceedings — penalties that can culminate in a country’s exclusion from EU decision-making — against both Hungary and Austria to send a signal to France, where far-right leader Marine Le Pen is eyeing a fourth run for the presidency in 2027.
But Brussels is unlikely to impose further disciplinary measures against Hungary or Austria, with rule-of-law European Commissioner Michael McGrath telling POLITICO in December that Hungary could always come in from the cold.
“It is never too late for anyone to pull back from the brink or to bring about positive change,” the Irish politician said in December, prompting Poland’s justice minister to disagree publicly.
What principles?
Indeed, after a surge in support for hard-right parties during the European Parliament election last year, the firewall that has traditionally kept mainstream parties from even appearing to collaborate with populist right- or left-wing groups has quickly crumbled.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen surprised many EU officials when she said, during a live debate last year hosted by POLITICO and Maastricht University, that she was ready to work with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Manfred Weber, president of the center-right European People’s Party to which von der Leyen belongs, had previously said the party was opposed to working with any group that wasn’t “pro-Europe … pro-Ukraine … [and] pro-rule of law.”
In Meloni’s case, the Brothers of Italy politician has moderated her anti-EU positions since taking power, giving EPP leaders cover. But the same cannot be said for Orbán or Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who embraces Putin and routinely attacks EU ally Ukraine. As for Kickl, diplomats said he is a “strict ideologue” who may prove harder to manage than Orbán, even if the Austrian leader would theoretically be constrained by a coalition agreement.
“What happened to Jörg Haider can no longer happen anymore, that we’re going to draw a quarantine around these people,” said Frank Furedi, executive director of Orbán-backed think tank MCC Brussels.
For Milan Nic, senior research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, the growth in the number of right-wing populists at the European Council will have a wider impact on the bloc’s policies.
“Even if you have two or three [populists at the table], it’s a totally different game than everyone ganging up on one,” Nic said. “What unites them is this cynical pragmatic nationalist position where they want an EU à la carte rather than anything coordinated.”
Here, there, everywhere
The eroding firewall is on display at the Commission, where a member of the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists, Meloni ally Raffaele Fitto, was named vice president despite protests from The Left and the Greens.
